Tries

The number of tries or attempts a task or action takes is typically correlated with its difficulty, subject to luck and probability. Easy tasks tend to take only a few tries; in the case of very easy tasks or tasks with a high probability of success and a negligible chance of failure, this number is unlikely to be greater than one or two. Difficult tasks tend to take many tries; the more difficult the task, the greater the expected value of the attempt count for the task. Of course, it is more than possible to get "lucky" and complete a difficult task on the first try, and, conversely, it is possible to get "unlucky" and take multiple tries to complete a task that should normally take only one or two tries. In some cases, there is also an element of skill. Sometimes, skill can allow one to guarantee a success if the proper steps are followed, while in most other cases, success cannot be guaranteed, but a sufficiently skilled, clever, and wise person can increase the chances of success and, therefore, lower the expected number of tries needed to observe one success.

Merriam-Webster lists the words try, attempt, endeavor, essay, and strive as synonyms.

Factors and causes

The average number of tries is directly related to the difficulty of the task. Similarly, the average number of tries is inversely proportional to the probability of successfully performing the task. For the standard example of a coin toss, the probability that the coin lands on "heads" is 1/2, or 50%. This means that, on average, one will get "heads" once every two tosses. For events with a probability greater than 50%, most "waiting times" will be either one or two tries. For unlikely events, the average number of tries is the reciprocal of the probability. For example, on Route 102 in Pokémon Ruby, Sapphire, and Emerald, the probability of finding a wild Ralts is only 4%. Since 4% = 0.04 and 1/0.04 = 25, you should, on average, expect 25 wild Pokémon encounters before finding a Ralts. Sometimes, you will get lucky and get a Ralts on your first try. Sometimes, you will take 25 attempts or something close to that. Sometimes, you will be less fortunate and need 50, 60, or even 100 tries. But the expected waiting time is 25 battles.

For sufficiently low probability p and sufficiently large n, where p = 1/n, there is approximately a 63.2% chance that the first success will be observed in n tries or fewer. The exact value is 1 − (1 − 1/n)ⁿ, which, when n tends to infinity and p tends to zero, tends to 1 − 1/e ≈ 0.63212055883. When the number of tries reaches 2n, the probability of at least one success rises to:

1 − 1/e² = 0.86466471676.

In fact, the probability of having no successes decays exponentially. For any constant k, the probability of having no successes within kn attempts is 1/e^k, which is less than 0.01 for k > 5, less than 0.001 when k > 7, less than 0.000001 (one in a million) when k > 14, and less than 10⁻⁹ (one in a billion) when k > 21. This means it is extremely unlikely that it will take you more than 25 × 21 = 525 battles to find a Ralts. Likewise, since the probability of finding a shiny Pokémon is 1/4096, the chances are one in a billion that you will have to wait more than 4,096 × 21 = 86,016 battles before your next shiny Pokémon. And even 86,016 is less than the number of seconds in one day (86,400). So, what are you waiting for? Get out there and start shiny hunting today!

Sometimes, skill can also increase the probability of success, allowing skilled players to succeed at a higher rate than the base probability.

Psychology and frustration

In psychology, frustration is a common emotional response to opposition, related to anger, annoyance and disappointment. Frustration arises from the perceived resistance to the fulfillment of an individual's will or goal and is likely to increase when a will or goal is denied or blocked. There are two types of frustration: internal and external. Internal frustration may arise from challenges in fulfilling personal goals, desires, instinctual drives and needs, or dealing with perceived deficiencies, such as a lack of confidence or fear of social situations.

The degree of frustration a person feels depends on the number of attempts taken relative to the person's expectation of how many attempts it should take, whether perceived or real. For example, a person taking 10 tries to get heads will likely be experiencing more frustration than someone who has taken 10 tries to find a Ralts. In the former, the probability is 50% and should take only two tries, and in the latter, the probability is 4% and should take 25 tries. This is why another name for "frustration tolerance" is "try tolerance" or "attempt tolerance." In addition to the strong correlation between attempts and frustration, another factor is when failures happened for different reasons. When the failures were caused by unforeseen circumstances, and if the circumstances are unrelated or perceived to be unrelated, the frustration will likely increase. The lower the perceived or actual likelihood of the "unforeseen circumstance", and less related the circumstances are perceived to be, the greater the frustration. Candy Crush Saga has gained notoriety for banking on player's frustration and impatience. As you can well imagine, Candy Crush Saga and OCD are not a good combo because people with OCD will often have compulsions to pay for in-game items under certain circumstances. The player is also brainwashed into thinking they must pay, as Tiffi comes on the screen to say: "You're so close! You only need one more jelly," though the exact message varies. While Candy Crush Saga involves a combination of both luck and skill, the game praises and rewards players who pass levels, tricking players into believing the game is all about skill.

The Justice World Tour has been postponed at least four times, and many Justin Bieber fans are understandably frustrated that they have to continue waiting. The tour was initially scheduled to start on May 14, 2020, as the Changes World Tour, but it was postponed twice due to the COVID-19 pandemic before finally starting in February 2022. The tour went smoothly until June 7, 2022, when Justin Bieber announced he had facial paralysis due to Ramsey-Hunt syndrome and was postponing the tour again. The tour resumed on July 27, but it continued for only 41 days before being put on hiatus a fourth time on September 6, this time, citing mental health issues. Let's all pray for Justin Bieber and hope he will be able to perform next spring, that it will not have to be postponed again.

Dealing with high "attempt" counts

When a task or event takes more attempts than normal or perceived to be normal, it is very easy to get angry and enraged due to a sense of wasted or lost time. Many people also exaggerate the number of attempts to be far greater than it actually was. For example, when asked to give a "rough estimate" on how many attempts the deceptively simple (but actually difficult) task took, the person is more likely to say it was a thousand or a million even if the true number was 10, 15, or 20. This section will teach you, the reader, how to calm down in the heat of the moment and prevent yourself from making an inappropriate reaction you may later regret.

Steps

• Accept and acknowledge your feelings. Name your feelings to tame your feelings. All feelings, including anger, frustration, and disappointment, are valid, and contrary to popular belief, these feelings are not strictly negative. As Ne-Yo famously stated in a 2012 song, "Much as you blame yourself, you can't be blamed for the way that you feel." It's how you deal with the emotions and feelings that counts. There is no right or wrong way to feel. Do not attempt to suppress your feelings. Allow yourself to experience them.
• State the facts. While your personal viewpoint of the situation may blind you from reality, it is important to stick to the facts. You feel like the latest Candy Crush Saga level took more attempts than the number of views on "Baby Shark" (currently 11.6 billion), but in reality, the true number is only 300 or 400. You feel like the Justin Bieber tour date in your location has been postponed 100,000 times, but in reality, that number is only five or six. The probability of getting a Ralts is 4%, which is frustratingly low for some players, but 4% is still 163 times higher than the chances of getting a shiny Pokémon. In fact, the chances of getting two Raltses in a row (0.0016) is still 555% higher than the chances of getting a shiny Pokémon.
• Accept the number and move on. The number of attempts is just that: a number. Accept it, forgive it, and move on. The number of attempts is just a number, and numbers are not something to stay upset about. If you are a math major who has aced calculus, you can also think of it this way: even if it's big, it's still damn small. Whether the task took one try, fifteen tries, or fifty tries, that number is tiny compared to a sufficiently large number.